Zuma's Beliefs

Does anybody know what Jacob Zuma, the new leader of the African National Congress, thinks about (i) HIV, and (ii) Zimbabwe?

Neighbouring Continents — Worlds Apart

Gordon Brown, his proxy Baroness Amos, and the leaders of Africa may be too weak to stand up to Robert Mugabe, but at least the German Chancellor Angela Merkel has spoken out against Zimbabwe's dictator, who has been in Europe this weekend for the EU-Africa summit, despite having been banned from entering the EU since 2002:

"The current state of Zimbabwe damages the image of the new Africa. Because this is so, we must take the chance here, in this framework, to put all our efforts together into strengthening democracy.

"We don't have the right to look away when human rights are trampled on. Intimidation of those with different opinions and breaches of the independence of the press cannot be justified."

Not that such words will make any more of a difference than our own Prime Minister's boycott of the meeting. Especially considering how South African President Thabo Mbeki is reported to have accused Merkel of being out of touch with the political situation in Zimbabwe. Quite what situation he was thinking of is anybody's guess — perhaps that of Zimbabwe as a world leader, with the world's highest inflation rate (what is variously reported as 8,000-15,000%), highest death rate (21.76 deaths/1,000 population — more than that for Sudan (14.39) and Iraq (5.26) combined!), highest number of AIDS orphans (1.6 million, almost one in four children, have now lost at least one parent to HIV), highest unemployment (at least 80%), and fastest-shrinking economy?

Unsurprisingly, the summit in Lisbon has now ended without any agreement being reached on the key issue of trade. The EU wants to replace expiring trade accords with temporary Economic Partnership Agreements by the end of the year, when a waiver by the World Trade Organisation on preferential trade arrangements for developing countries expires. However, anti-poverty groups have criticised the EPAs for failing to provide protection for Africa's poor farmers and its fragile industry.

Another Victory For Mugabe

So, predictably, despite being subject to a European visa ban, Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe is to attend next week's summit of European and African leaders in Portugal. Gordon Brown had threatened to stay away from the talks if Mugabe was allowed to participate. However, a number of African leaders, who still hold Mugabe as a hero of the struggle that brought independence to his country in 1980, had threatened to boycott the summit if Mugabe was barred from attending. Britain is now expected to send a junior minister or diplomat instead.

Supposedly to discuss issues such as trade, climate change and AIDS, the Lisbon summit is now certain to be overshadowed by the question of human rights violations in Zimbabwe, where elections are due to be held in March. Once again, Mugabe wins and the people of Africa lose — not that the dictator will be in the least concerned about that.

African Interventionism

"Blair's 'ethical foreign policy' is a long-forgotten memory, sacrificed upon an invasion undertaken without UN sanction."

Do not miss the Ugandan-born Archbishop of York, Dr John Sentamu, in today's Observer, calling for "the sanctions and campaigns that brought an end to apartheid in South Africa to be applied to the Mugabe regime":

Zimbabwe cannot any more be seen as an African problem needing an African solution - it is a humanitarian disaster...

The time has come for Mr Brown, who has already shown himself to be an African interventionist through his work at the UN in favour of the people of Darfur, finally to slay the ghosts of Britain's colonialist past by thoroughly revising foreign policy towards Zimbabwe and to lead the way in co-ordinating an international response...

Like Idi Amin before him in Uganda, Mugabe has rallied a country against its former colonial master only to destroy it through a dictatorial fervour. Enemies are tortured, the press is censored, the people are starving and meanwhile the world waits for South Africa to intervene. That time is now over.

Let us know what you think — and, if you're going to the Conservative Party conference, watch out for our stand, where we'll have a copy of our Zimbabwe petition.

World Poverty - Who Cares?

"Existing trade barriers, agricultural subsidies and restrictive rules on intellectual property rights reinforce global inequities – and they make a mockery of our tall claims to eliminate hunger and poverty from our world."

The United Nations' mid-point progress report on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), published today, notes that although extreme poverty is beginning to fall in sub-Saharan Africa and the poorest are getting a little less poor in most regions of the world, poverty reduction has been accompanied by rising inequality and half the developing world remains without basic sanitation.

The report claims that the MDGs are still attainable and affirms that "The world wants no new promises." However, if success is to be achieved in the poorest and most disadvantaged countries, "Developed countries need to deliver fully on longstanding commitments to achieve the official development assistance (ODA) target of 0.7 per cent of gross national income (GNI) by 2015." In particular, it notes, the Group of 8 industrialised nations need "to live up to their 2005 pledge to double aid to Africa by 2010 and European Union Member States to allocate 0.7 per cent of GNI to ODA by 2015."

Speaking at today's meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council (ECOSOC) in Geneva, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon told the heads of the United Nations and the World Trade Organisation, "The world desperately needs a successful conclusion to the Doha trade negotiations." However, any realistic chances of a deal have already been dashed with the collapse of talks last month between the so-called "G4" group of the World Trade Organisation's four most powerful members—that is, the European Union, United States, Brazil, and India.

United States of Africa

And now for something completely different...Flanked by female bodyguards dressed in camouflage, Libya's Muammar Gaddafi, wearing dark glasses and a brown shirt emblazoned with images of Pan-African leaders and a map of the continent, has called upon leaders of the African Union to "Unite or die!"

Despite facing problems such as Sudan and Zimbabwe, the AU has convened for a summit in Accra, Ghana, to discuss the issue of continental citizenship and continental government. Sounds like a certain other continent's misplaced sense of priorities...

Bush Leads G8 AIDS Deal

Leaders of the G8 nations will today pledge to spend $60bn (£30bn) fighting Aids in Africa. However, before we crack out the champagne, we ought to look at their track record. So far, they have provided less than 10% of the extra aid they promised Africa at the G8 summit in Gleneagles almost two years ago. Doing slightly better than most of our European partners—and much better than the current G8 president, Germany, who has performed particularly badly—Britain's overall aid budget has increased by 12.6% over this period. However, it is America who is leading the way in the global fight against HIV/AIDS. Here's what President Bush had to say last week:

The United States has responded vigorously to this crisis. In 2003, I asked Congress to approve an emergency plan for AIDS relief. Our nation pledged $15 billion over five years for HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment and care in many of the poorest nations on Earth. In the years since, thanks to the support of the United States Congress and the American people, our country has met this pledge. This level of assistance is unprecedented, and the largest commitment by any nation to combat a single disease in human history.

This investment has yielded the best possible return: saved lives. To date, the emergency plan has supported treatment for 1.1 million people infected with HIV. This is a promising start, yet without further action, the legislation that funded this emergency plan is set to expire in 2008. Today I ask Congress to demonstrate America's continuing commitment to fighting the scourge of HIV/AIDS by reauthorizing this legislation now. I ask Congress to double our initial commitment and approve an additional $30 billion for HIV/AIDS prevention, for care, and for treatment over the next five years.

So, when you hear German Chancellor Angela Merkel announce their landmark new AIDS deal, just remember: there would be no deal without President Bush, who will contribute at least half of the pledged assistance—and who is the only one with a record for delivering on his pledges.

Climate Convert Or Con Artist?

American President George W Bush has urged countries to agree on long-term goals for greenhouse gas emissions but will oppose demands at next week's G8 summit in Germany for the USA to cut emissions and join a global carbon trading system. Is he belatedly trying to seize the initiative on climate change, or is this simply "a deliberate and carefully crafted attempt to derail any prospect of a climate change agreement," "a delaying tactic to keep the climate change issue off his back in terms of any real decisions until he leaves office," as Tony Juniper, the executive director of Friends of the Earth believes?

Outlining his development strategy "to bring progress and prosperity to struggling nations all across the world" to the United States Global Leadership Campaign, a coalition of more than 400 businesses, humanitarian organisations and community leaders, the President also called on Congress to double US funds for the global fight against HIV/AIDS and to fund his 2005 commitment to expand American assistance to sub-Saharan Africa to $8.67 billion by 2010.

Another Forgotten African Tragedy

"In terms of numbers and access to them, Somalia is a worse displacement crisis than Darfur or Chad or anywhere else this year."

So says the United Nations' top aid official John Holmes, who had to cut short a trip to the Somali capital Mogadishu at the weekend after bombs planted by suspected insurgents killed at least three people.

Recent battles between rebels and allied Somali-Ethiopian forces are reported to have killed at least 1,300 civilians, more than 300,000 people have recently fled the city, and many more are suffering from an outbreak of cholera. However, aid workers say that they are only reaching 35-40% of those in need as the government is accused of obstructing aid and violating human rights and international humanitarian law.

Somalia's interim government was set up in 2004 following two years of peace talks, but it only ever controlled a small piece of territory around the town of Baidoa, about 150 miles north-west of the capital. Last summer, for the first time since Somalia's pro-American President Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991, the capital was briefly reunited under control of the Union of Islamic Courts. However, America claimed the UIC were linked to terrorist groups and supported Ethiopia-backed government forces who toppled the UIC in December.
Some suggest that the United States is only involved in order to secure its interests in the country's oil and gas reserves. In truth, America has not been well thought of in Somalia since its disasterous intervention in 1993 lead to the death of more than a thousand Somalis and 18 US troops, as portrayed in "Black Hawk Down".

Mugabe Makes Mockery of UN

Despite suffering from gross economic and agricultural mismanagement, rampant inflation and acute food shortages, Zimbabwe has been approved to head the Commission on Sustainable Development, the United Nations body charged with promoting economic progress and environmental protection.

The chair traditionally rotates among regions of the world and it was Africa’s turn to chair the commission, but the continent's choice of Zimbabwe as its candidate has amazed and disappointed Western nations and human rights organisations.

Quite frankly, the decision is incredible, making a mockery of and seriously calling into question the credibility of the whole organisation. This blog has noted recent failings in the UN over decisions on Iran, Uzbekistan and Sudan, but this latest compact proves beyond doubt that the intergovernmental body is no longer fit for any purpose.

An Inconvenient Truth

"About five years ago Kilimanjaro was being used as an icon for global warming. We know now that this was far too simplistic a view."So a team of scientists from the University of Innsbruck have told the European Geosciences Union General Assembly.

Based on their scientific research (rather than unfounded speculation), precipitation and not temperature is the key to the Tanzanian peak's future. One of their recent publications concludes that rather than changes in 20th century climate being responsible for their demise, glaciers on Kilimanjaro appear to be merely remnants of a past climate that was once able to sustain them.

Yet again, science finds itself at conflict with currently accepted political dogma.

Evening UPDATE: Given American resistance to what many there dismiss as the religio-political arguments of environmentalists, I rather expected the US military in its report National Security and the Threat of Climate Change to focus on practical issues such as oil dependency and energy security, especially given its acknowledgement that "uncertainty exists and debate continues regarding the science and future extent of projected climate changes" and its claim to be "moving beyond the arguments of cause and effect."  For the most part it does so, but the second of its five recommendations comes as something of a surprise.  For even they maintain that "the path to mitigating the worst security consequences of climate change involves reducing global greenhouse gas emissions."

Their five recommendations are:

1. The national security consequences of climate change should be fully integrated into national security and national defense strategies.
   
2. The U.S. should commit to a stronger national and international role to help stabilize climate changes at levels that will avoid significant disruption to global security and stability.
   
3. The U.S. should commit to global partnerships that help less developed nations build the capacity and resiliency to better manage climate impacts.
   
4. The Department of Defense should enhance its operational capability by accelerating the adoption of improved business processes and innovative technologies that result in improved U.S. combat power through energy efficiency.
   
5. DoD should conduct an assessment of the impact on US military installations worldwide of rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and other possible climate change impacts over the next thirty to forty years.

IMF Hinders African Progress

An average of just 30 pence in every pound of foreign aid increases to Sub-Saharan African countries can be spent because the International Monetary Fund requires governments under its supervision to redirect the use of foreign aid increases to either boost international currency reserves or to pay down domestic debt.

This is the shock finding reported by the IMF's Independent Evaluation Office in meetings today and directly undermines Africa's fight against AIDS, illiteracy, and hunger.

Now, the IMF is not an independent body. It is an intergovernmental body. That means the governments responsible for approving an increase in their foreign aid budgets are also the ones responsible for deciding IMF policy. Our charitable leaders are therefore giving with one hand, only to take away with the other ... behind our backs. So much for the exhortation to "Let your giving be in secret" – the Western world's leaders have paraded their giving (and, even more so, their unfulfilled promises of giving) but hidden the fact that they've not been as generous after all.

Bursting at the Seams

"Let us not be blind to our differences, but let us also direct attention to our common interests, and the means by which those differences can be resolved. And if we cannot end now our differences, at least we can help make the world safe for diversity, for in the final analysis our most basic common link is that we all inhabit this small planet, we all breathe the same air, we all cherish our children's future, and we are all mortal."

So concluded Professor Jeffrey Sachs in the first of this year's Reith lectures this morning, after asking some challenging questions about the geo-political problems facing our generation as a result of living in an unprecedentedly crowded world:

Can it be true that because we don't want to talk to Iran, H5N1 won't pass through Iran, we won't have to deal with avian 'flu in places we don't want to speak to, because we put on pre-conditions to negotiations, that we can't see the commonality of our problems? And can it really be, ladies and gentlemen, that the solution to Darfur, one of the most urgent crises on the planet, is all about peacekeepers and troops and sanctions, when we know that in Western Darfur the rebellion started because this is just about the poorest place on the whole planet, where the rebellion started because there's not enough water to keep people alive, where the livestock have no veterinary care, where there's no basic infrastructure, where a power grid may be a thousand miles away? Can we really think that peacekeeping troops and sanctions will solve this problem?

And how can it be, ladies and gentlemen, that we think we can be safe? We think we can be safe when we leave a billion people to struggle literally for their daily survival, the poorest billion for whom every day is a fight to secure enough nutrients, a fight against the pathogen in the water that can kill them or their child, a fight against a mosquito bite carrying malaria or another killer disease for which there's no medicine though the medicines exist and are low cost but there's no medicine in the village available to save the child and thus a million or two million children will die this year of malaria. How can we think that this can be safe? And how can we choose, as we do in the United States, to have a budget request this year of six hundred and fifty billion dollars for the military - more than all the rest of the world combined - and four and a half billion dollars for all of African assistance, and think that this is prudent? One might say oh it's a science fiction that a zoonotic disease could arise and somehow spread to the world, except that Aids is exactly that. How many examples do we need to understand the linkages, and the common threats, and the recklessness of leaving people to die, recklessness in spirit, in human heart, and in geo-political safety for us?

However, despite Sachs' infectious optimism, like a number of people in the audience, I felt that the kind of "gradual evolution in human institutions" that Sachs is calling for if mankind is to rise to these great global challenges requires too much faith in intergovernmental institutions and a step change in human nature which is simply not going to happen.  Any thoughts anyone?

Africa Hypocrisy

2005 was to be a turning point for Africa. Tony Blair launched the Commission for Africa and pledged that the continent would be a priority during the UK's presidencies of the G8 and the EU that year. We were told that security in Europe was dependent on recovery in Africa. G7 finance ministers agreed to cancel 100% of the debts owed to multilateral bodies like the International Monetary Fund. World leaders at Gleneagles assured the millions of Live8 and Make Poverty History protesters that they would double aid to Africa by 2010.

Today we learn how long the empty rhetoric promised commitment lasted – aid to sub-Saharan Africa, excluding debt relief for Nigeria, increased by just 2% last year and overall aid payments to the developing world fell by more than 5%.

Europe's Mid-Life Crisis

Since its creation on 25 March 1957, the European Union, together with NATO, has facilitated economic reconstruction and the consolidation of democracy across the continent, so it is right to mark this anniversary. However, like any other 50-year-old, Europe today finds itself asking some fundamental questions about its purpose and needs to look to the future, to rise to the challenges that David Cameron calls "the priorities of a 3G Europe": Globalisation, Global warming, and Global poverty.

With Europe's semicentenary coming on the same day that we celebrate the bicentenary of the abolition of the trans-Atlantic slave-trade, Europe must embark on significant reform and start looking outward, if it is ever to make a reality of its rhetoric that Africa is now one of its top priorities. It must move on from its socialist dream, depart from its protectionist tendencies, and decentralise powers to national control.

A couple of days ago, European Commission President José Manuel Barroso claimed: "In the Europe I want, the right to choose has primacy." This must apply not just to the rights of the individual but also to the rights of individual nation states – both within and without Europe.